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Researchers, such as Ajeya Cotra, have attempted to estimate the computational resources necessary for achieving human-level AI by drawing on biological analogies, and most notably the work of Tom Davidson. His June 2023 report employs economic principles to model when AI may be able to fully automate human labor.
Understanding AI Timelines and Takeoff Speeds
Davidson's model is designed to forecast two key concepts: AI timelines — when AI reaches specific milestones — and AI takeoff speeds — how quickly transition from lesser to greater capabilities occurs. The implications of these concepts are crucial for understanding AI's future impact.