Part 3/8:
The model categorizes AI takeoff speed into three potential types: fast (weeks to months), moderate (a few years), or slow (decades). For instance, one scenario could involve a long timeline with a rapid takeoff if researchers experience stagnation and then suddenly make significant breakthroughs.
To measure takeoff speeds, Davidson distinguishes 'weaker AI' (capable of automating 20% of current labor) from 'stronger AI' (capable of automating 100%). The process from weaker to stronger AI encompasses estimating the resource requirements to achieve the latter, which Davidson believes could require an increase in computational power and improved algorithms by approximately 10,000 times.