Part 6/8:
Using Monte Carlo simulations, Davidson’s model randomizes inputs based on distributions, yielding myriad potential future scenarios regarding AI development timelines and characteristics.
Key Predictions from Davidson's Model
According to Davidson’s model, the median prediction suggests that AI may fully automate all human labor by 2043, with a takeoff speed spanning approximately three years. Notably, there is a 10% chance of achieving this milestone before 2030 and a similarly low probability of reaching it after 2100.
The model reveals important insights beyond just dates for milestones. For example, even without major disruptive progress, current projections indicate that AI could rapidly surpass human capabilities within just a few years.