Part 4/6:
For Zin, the threshold of concern arises if Iran were to launch a substantial military offensive into Iraq and Kuwait, aiming for control of Saudi oil fields. The stakes would be significant; Iraq and Kuwait contribute around 5 to 6 million barrels daily, while Saudi fields—primarily located in a Shia-majority region—add another 10 million barrels daily. This potential alignment based on shared religious demographics could provoke broader instability.