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Financial markets responded with cautious optimism. Ahead of the release, there was a 37% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would cut interest rates in the upcoming meeting, scheduled in approximately six weeks. Following the data release, that probability slightly decreased to 32%, reflecting market sentiment that rate cuts are less imminent.
The RBA’s recent monetary policy statement projects that unemployment will stabilize around 4.3% through 2025 and into 2027, aligning closely with current figures. This forecast suggests policymakers expect a steady, if slightly elevated, unemployment rate in the near term, which likely influences their cautious stance on rate adjustments.