Part 6/10:
Conversely, California is expected to lose at least 3 electoral votes, with New York losing 2, and states like Illinois and Minnesota losing one each. These shifts are shifting power from Democratic strongholds to the GOP, fundamentally altering the electoral calculus.
The Demise of the Blue Wall Strategy
Democrats have historically relied on winning the "blue wall" states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. These states have often been decisive in presidential elections. However, the new census redistributions threaten this strategy:
Even if Democrats sweep all three blue wall states in 2024, they could still lose in 2032 due to the redistributed electoral votes.
All three blue wall states are trending Republican since 2020, reducing Democratic margins.