Part 5/9:
Looking ahead to 2030, the narrative shifts. The CSIRO forecasts that renewables will likely be cheaper than coal by that time. However, Hilton attributes this to what she calls a "fiddle"—an elaborate set of assumptions that heavily favor renewables.
Key assumptions include:
Massive investments in infrastructure: Snowy 2.0 ($12 billion and counting), additional pumped hydro, batteries, and transmission lines are all assumed to be built before 2030, with their costs effectively "disappearing" from current calculations.
Selective cost exclusions: The model excludes the costs of building new coal plants on existing sites (brownfield projects), instead opting for greenfield sites that require additional infrastructure and higher costs.