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Although some polls, such as the Rassmussen survey, show Trump up by 12 nationally, whether these margins hold or not, the trend is warning signs for Democrats. The combined data suggest that Trump is not only closing the gap but in many cases pulling ahead in states that traditionally tilted Democratic.
The Collapse of the Blue Wall and Sun Belt Realignment
The so-called "blue wall"—comprising Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—has historically been crucial for Democratic victories in presidential elections. Donald Trump famously flipped these states in 2016, the first Republican to do so since 1988, and indications now show him positioned to do so again.