Part 8/13:
This historical underestimation means that current polls showing narrow leads for Democrats or hypothetical tie games should be approached with caution. The consistent pattern suggests that if voters turn out in high numbers, especially Republicans, surprises are possible. Mobilizing the base could be the key to flipping some of these races.
Critical Issues Shaping Voter Preferences
Polls consistently reveal that economic concerns—particularly high energy costs and property taxes—are top priorities for swing voters. For example, New Jersey voters cite these issues more than any other, aligning ideologically with Republican platforms promising relief from high bills and overdevelopment.