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Yet, he notes resilience in certain sectors like cruise lines, citing Carnival's record bookings through 2027 as evidence that some leisure and travel segments still thrive. The lesson, he suggests, is that while some pockets of the economy flourish, others suffer, creating a "flat" piece at the bottom of the K-shaped divide.
Tariffs: Early Signs and Future Risks
A significant portion of the conversation revolves around tariffs introduced in 2022 and their effects. Leeman recounts the April 2nd, 2023 "Liberation Day," when tariffs were announced with predictions of economic catastrophe. However, these early fears proved overstated, largely because the tariffs enacted were lower than initial threats, and the markets remained resilient.