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He pointed out that early voting potentially leads to scenarios like the 2022 Delaware Senate race, where significant early ballots played a pivotal role. Despite the early momentum, Buchanan emphasized that there remains substantial "runway"—meaning plenty of voters have yet to vote—and that campaigns still have opportunities to shift opinions before Election Day.
The Changing Generic Ballot Numbers
Analyzing the generic ballot—where voters select Republican or Democratic candidates without specific names—Buchanan noted a shift since Labor Day. Initially, Democrats held a seven-point advantage, but recent polls show this lead narrowing to around five points, with some figures closer to four and a half. Such movement indicates a tightening trend in overall voter sentiment.