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This trend correlates with increased Republican voting activity, especially among mail-in and early voters. Voter registration data shows Republicans are actively expanding their early vote margins, many of whom are typically Low Propensity voters—those who seldom cast ballots but are now turning out in significant numbers.
The Jay Jones Scandal: A Political Anchor for the Democrats
The rapid decline in Democratic support is largely attributed to a damaging scandal involving Jay Jones, the party’s Attorney General nominee. It was revealed that Jones sent threatening text messages in which he explicitly fantasized about assassinating Republican Speaker Todd Gilbert and his children. He even expressed a desire to see Gilbert’s wife holding her children’s dead bodies.