Part 12/13:
Despite resilience, the cracks are increasingly visible. Economic stagnation, wage stagnation, and a declining population threaten the regime’s stability. The flight of educated citizens weakens long-term prospects, especially in technological sectors.
External pressures—sanctions, deteriorating relations with the West, and ongoing proxy conflicts—compound internal challenges. Belarus’s external debt exceeds $18 billion, leaning heavily on loans from Russia and China, both demanding political concessions in return.
Strategically vital as it remains for Moscow, Belarus cannot isolate itself indefinitely. Its dependence on Russia creates vulnerabilities; any decline in Moscow’s economy or willingness to support Minsk could trigger a collapse.