Part 9/11:
He reflects on history, mentioning that events like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914—an archetype of a black swan triggering World War I—came out of nowhere. These examples serve to remind us that major upheavals often stem from unpredictable incidents.
The Future Is Uncertain; Russia’s Surrender Seems Inevitable
Concluding on a decisive note, Beernut predicts that the conflict in Ukraine will not end with diplomatic ceremonies or political handshakes, but rather through unpredictable events that force Russia to surrender or withdraw. He argues that Russia is economically exhausted and politically strained, with the majority of Russian citizens growing disillusioned.