Part 4/10:
Johnston clarifies that the market unlikely will see such a large surplus come to fruition. He highlights that the IEA’s numbers are based on a static projection of OPEC+ production, which most analysts doubt will persist. Historically, if prices fall—especially to the levels implied by such surpluses—shale producers in the United States and other non-OPEC countries would likely cut back in response, helping to absorb excess supply.