Part 7/10:
Looking beyond immediate fluctuations, Johnston underscores a broader market transition. The long-term debate revolves around the timing and extent of peak oil demand. Some analysts posit that demand may plateau or peak in the late 2020s or early 2030s, driven by renewable energy sources and electric vehicles.
However, the more pressing and immediate issue is the shift from recent years' under-supply environment—characterized by persistent shortages from 2021 to 2024—to a likely oversupply scenario. With demand growing more slowly than pre-pandemic norms, the supply side must increasingly adjust to prevent surplus buildup.