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With 80 million insured vehicles and around 16 million new Tesla cars sold each year, the insurance business’s scale could rapidly expand. Applying a robust growth multiple—such as a 30 Price-to-Earnings ratio—this could attribute a valuation of roughly $360 billion solely to the insurance segment by 2030.
The Bull Case: Monopoly and Margin Expansion
The most optimistic scenario envisions Tesla establishing a near-monopoly in automotive insurance, supported by its extensive hardware and data capabilities. If Tesla maintains its aggressive growth and tighter margins, margins could eventually reach 20%. With $152 billion in revenue, that equates to about $30 billion in profit annually.