Part 3/12:
At the core of Arc's valuation lies a belief in Tesla's disruptive potential across multiple sectors. Their model assigns a $4,600 expected value, with a 25% probability each to the bear and bull scenarios. The bearish case sees Tesla's share price settling at around $2,900, while the optimistic bull case estimates $5,800—a 5.8x increase from current levels within five years.
Compared to traditional Wall Street projections—often conservative—Arc's predictions are markedly more aggressive. The difference stems from Arc’s deep dive into Tesla’s technological innovations and potential market dominances that many analysts overlook.