Part 3/9:
Some industry observers, like Gary Black, emphasize the importance of skepticism when interpreting management forecasts. Black notes that in 2014, projections for Tesla to sell 500,000 vehicles in 2020 were labeled absurd, yet Tesla nearly hit 1 million deliveries in 2022. This suggests that Tesla has been consistently underestimated, leading some to consider management guidance cautiously.
On the other hand, others warn against blind optimism, emphasizing the disruptive nature of Tesla's technological innovations. The argument is that the industry revolution Tesla is driving—with advancements like autonomous vehicles and battery technology—is unlike any previous paradigm shift, comparable perhaps only to the printing press or the industrial revolution.