Part 5/15:
NATO's deterrence credibility hangs in the balance. The alliance was founded on the principle that an attack on one member is an attack on all. Poland’s declaration to shoot down violations underscores this resolve, but also raises the question: will Moscow interpret this red line as a serious deterrent or as an invitation to test NATO further?
If Russia perceives NATO’s response as credible, escalation might be contained; if not, the alliance's deterrence could weaken, increasing the likelihood of broader conflict. The alliance faces the dilemma of balancing assertive defense with avoiding an unintended war.