Part 3/15:
Russia's subsequent response was to deny any violation, claiming its aircraft remained in neutral waters. This familiar pattern of provocation, denial, and blame-shifting underscores Moscow’s strategy to test NATO's vigilance while minimizing political repercussions. Yet, the message is clear: Russia seeks to normalize these aggressive acts as routine, aiming to unsettle NATO and reinforce its perceived dominance over its eastern flank.
A Broader Pattern of Provocations
The incident with Estonia isn't isolated. Similar concerns have been raised by Latvia and Lithuania, all pointing to increased Russian flights over the Baltic Sea with transponders off—a move designed more to unsettle than to conduct routine patrols.