Part 5/15:
Strategists describe this series of events as climbing an "escalation ladder," where each act— from lingering fighter jets to drone incursions— is a calculated probing move. Russia aims to gauge NATO’s response and ensure its actions are perceived as routine, avoiding direct military confrontation while undermining the alliance’s cohesiveness and resolve.
The danger lies in miscalculations— a single misstep by a NATO pilot, a drone flying too close, or a jet ignoring intercepts— that could rapidly escalate. Such incidents might push NATO to invoke Article 5, the alliance's collective defense clause, marking a potential entry point into wider conflict. For frontline nations, daily provocations are a constant reminder of the thin line infrastructure and security are walking.