Part 6/15:
Putin’s Calculus and the Unpredictability of War
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approach appears rooted in a mix of strategic testing and a desire to intimidate, driven by a worldview that views NATO’s presence as a threat to Russia’s ambitions. Despite the fact that Russia’s goal of destabilizing NATO and regaining influence seems increasingly risky and costly— especially given the American and European military support for Ukraine— Putin’s actions suggest he perceives a conflict as potentially beneficial or at least worth the risk.
Contrary to rational Western predictions, Putin's moves are not necessarily guided by strategic logic but are driven by a Soviet-era mindset that perceives threats even where none exist, fueling paranoia and delusions of rebuilding a Russian empire.