Part 7/8:
The focus today is on the CPI figures, which will offer fresh insights into inflation dynamics. While the headline rate for June is expected to hover around 2.1%, the core, or underlying inflation measured by the trim mean, is anticipated to ease modestly. These figures are critical, especially for the RBA, which predominantly considers underlying inflation when setting interest rates.
Despite the slight easing forecast, most analysts agree that it would require a significant deviation from expectations to derail the consensus that the RBA will cut rates in August. Markets are largely priced in for a pause or potential rate cuts, contingent on how the inflation data and subsequent economic signals unfold.