Part 12/16:
The current fiscal trajectory is unsustainable. With €3.4 trillion in debt, a deficit exceeding 5%, and interest payments swallowing over 2% of GDP, France is essentially financing two armies—the one visible on the ground and the invisible one of creditors collecting debt service everywhere. With interest rates increasing, refinancing costs soar, further straining public finances.
Meanwhile, demographic shifts threaten to shrink the workforce and increase the dependency ratio—more retirees relative to active workers. Birth rates are at historic lows; immigration’s limited fiscal impact fails to offset the decline. This combination of debt, demographic decline, and inflexible political structures leaves France on a perilous path toward a fiscal cliff.