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If China’s leaders interpret moderation as weakness, it might embolden rivals and adversaries, while appearing inconsistent to nationalistic factions within China. Conversely, failure to walk back some of the more provocative stances risks tipping regional and global stability into conflict.
The Broader Implications
Understanding these internal dynamics is vital for predicting China's future behavior on the world stage. Xi’s internal consolidation of power, coupled with his external assertiveness, signifies a China that is both confident and cautious—yet always ready to escalate if its red lines are challenged.