Part 4/15:
Wilson confidently argued that the US economy had likely already experienced its recession, with data revisions signaling that the decline bottomed around April. He draws on revisions in labor market data—highlighting a spike in layoffs in early 2023 followed by a stabilization or improvement—to support this view. The expectation is for unemployment to trend higher, possibly reaching 5–6%, a range aligned with more typical historical cycles, though it remains elevated relative to recent years.