Part 10/15:
Wilson projected a gradual weakening of the US dollar over the next year by about 10% based on fundamentals—interest rate differentials, fiscal discipline, and policy shifts. He highlighted that the dollar's recent strength was somewhat surprising considering the Fed’s monetary easing and QT cessation, suggesting that external factors and relative valuations are driving recent strength.
He also discussed the risk of a stronger dollar counterwoven into the inflation and currency dynamics, referencing the declining S&P-to-gold ratio and historical peaks of US exceptionalism in 1999. Current valuations indicate scope for a weaker dollar, which would support precious metals and commodities.