Part 6/9:
Past forecasts significantly underestimated the speed at which AGI might develop. For example, in 2020, researchers at Ark Invest estimated a 50-year horizon for AGI. However, by 2024, that estimate had shrunk to around eight years, reflecting the rapid progress in language models like GPT-4.
This shortening timeline hints that AGI may be closer than we think, prompting urgent discussions about research priorities, safety measures, and ethical considerations.
The Challenge of Alignment and Safety
As AI systems become more capable, aligning AGI with human values becomes critically essential. Questions about whether we can develop AI that follows human intent without unintended consequences are at the forefront.