Part 4/10:
This now stands as perhaps their worst take, with the speaker owning the mistake with some humility. They revisit the tweet on its anniversary, acknowledging how wrong they were. Over time, it became clear that chain of thought reasoning was a major breakthrough, fundamentally changing how models approached complex, multi-step problems.
The Evolution and Incrementality of AI Development
While some anticipated rapid, revolutionary jumps in AI capabilities, the reality over the past year has been more about incremental improvements that accumulate over time. These subtle yet persistent advancements have helped saturation across various benchmarks, such as humanity's "final exam," indicating steady progress. However, no large game-changer has emerged since the rise of reasoning models.