Part 6/13:
Prediction markets, places where people bet on future events, initially pegged the probability of an AI winning gold at about 20%. However, following recent developments, that probability has surged to over 85%, reflecting a near certainty among experts and enthusiasts that AI's capacity has surpassed previous expectations.
This sharp increase underscores the unpredictability of breakthroughs in AI. Notably, the prediction markets did not have explicit leaks or insider sources about this achievement. Rather, the model’s sudden success surprised experts, including some OpenAI insiders, highlighting how rapidly AI technology is advancing beyond anticipated timelines.