Part 3/11:
Economists have long used the beverage curve to describe employment dynamics relative to economic conditions. A flat beverage curve indicates an environment where job gains plateau and layoffs become more prevalent—an unmistakable sign that the labor market has transitioned from a growth phase to contraction.
Recent data confirm this shift. After years of a historically tight labor market, the transition is now evident: companies are no longer just pausing hiring; they're actively laying off workers. This turning point is confirmed by various reports, including negative payroll numbers and declining indices from sources like ADP, Challenger, and Rellio Labs.