Part 11/13:
The long-term horizon remains centered on the impending inflection point in May 2024 when robo-taxis are expected to generate meaningful cash flows—potentially around 5% of Tesla’s annual free cash flow. This is projected to be a major catalyst, capable of fundamentally revaluing Tesla’s stock and triggering accelerated multiple expansion.
Prior to that, any run-up to $550-$600 in early 2024 might create a correction or air pocket, unless driven by a breakthrough like the Optimus robot launch or significant autonomous driving milestones. The closer Tesla gets to this key inflection (around $488-$500), the less likely it is to see a sharp pullback, as market expectations become more grounded in real cash flow generation.