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However, a failed vote or significant opposition could trigger a dramatic plunge, given the financial and strategic implications—potentially the largest decline in Tesla's history. Conversely, some traders expect the stock to have already priced in the likelihood of approval, meaning the actual movement might be muted or follow a "sell-the-news" pattern.
Conclusion: A High-Stakes Next Chapter
Based on current trends, legal developments, and shareholder sentiment, the consensus among analysts is that Musk’s payout approval is highly probable—around 84%. This vote is not just a matter of compensation but a referendum on Musk's vision and control over Tesla’s future technological revolution.