Part 4/12:
2. Autonomy and Robo-Taxis
Tesla's autonomous driving capabilities and its anticipated Robo-Taxi network constitute a transformative vertical. Elon Musk’s vision is for autonomous fleet deployment to begin scaling rapidly around 2026-2027. The expectation is for robo-taxis to become a dominant revenue driver within just a few years, eventually surpassing Tesla’s core EV business.
Key predictions include:
Deployment of 40,000 robo-taxis in 2026, scaling to over 2.4 million by 2030
Generation of $16.8 billion in free cash flow by 2028, far exceeding current company valuation
Robo-taxis poised to disrupt traditional transportation, encompassing ride-sharing, taxis, buses, and potentially more