Part 2/11:
The recent stock movement prompted a thorough re-examination of Tesla’s valuation model, although the core assumptions remain largely unchanged since previous analyses. The focus is on the discounted cash flow (DCF) model, which estimates the fair future value of Tesla based on key variables like autonomous vehicle revenues and artificial intelligence advancements.
The Core Components: RoboTaxi and Optimus Projections
At the heart of Tesla’s valuation are projections related to RoboTaxi fleets and Optimus humanoid robots. The model presumes a gradual but exponential scaling of robo taxis, starting with modest numbers in 2024—approximately 400 robo taxis by year-end, mostly operating in test regions like Arizona, San Francisco, and Austin.