Part 8/11:
The valuation model translates Tesla's future cash flows into a discounted cash flow (DCF) estimate, providing a "fair value" for the stock.
Base Case and Long-Term Valuation
2025: The model indicates a fair future value of approximately $847 per share, based on conservative assumptions.
Current Market Discount: Despite the conservative estimate, the current stock price (~$430) reflects a 42% discount to this fair value, suggesting an upside potential of approximately 73%.
2026: As robo taxi deployments accelerate, the fair value could rise to $1,400 per share, further increasing the potential upside.