Part 2/12:
Understanding Tesla’s future requires moving beyond simple forecasts. Instead, a probabilistic scenario model provides a nuanced view, considering multiple possible outcomes—namely, base, bull, and bare cases. This approach acknowledges that the future is inherently uncertain, especially in a technological frontier like AI and autonomous vehicles.
Why Multiple Scenarios Matter
Most traditional analyses tend to focus on a single prediction, often overly optimistic or conservative. However, a scenario-based approach enables better risk assessment by incorporating:
Base Case: The most likely, moderate projection based on current technological and market trends.
Bull Case: Optimistic scenario where things progress faster and results exceed expectations.