Part 5/12:
Tesla’s vehicle sales are influenced by regulatory factors, notably tax credits. The release of more affordable models—possibly priced below $30,000—aims to sustain demand as credits expire. The delayed launch of these models signals strategic timing intended to maximize sales volumes before the end of the year.
The Updated Valuation Model: Three Scenarios
The core of this analysis is a sophisticated, probabilistic valuation model that forecasts Tesla’s future worth considering possible variations in execution and market conditions.
Model Structure and Methodology
- Three Scenarios: Base, Bull, and Bare cases, each with specific assumptions about deployment rates, technological progress, and market penetration.