Part 8/12:
Even in the most conservative assumptions, Tesla's valuation remains compelling. The bare case estimates a future share price of around $1,877 in 2030, highlighting substantial long-term value even under sluggish adoption. Conversely, the bull case projects a trajectory where Tesla's stock could reach $14,600 by 2030, driven by rapid AI and autonomous vehicle deployment.
Long-Term Outlook and Valuation Highlights
Market Penetration and Fleet Growth
Tesla’s estimated robo taxi fleet could reach hundreds of millions of vehicles globally, capturing significant portions of the future car market. Simultaneously, the Optimus install base could number in the billions, fundamentally altering manufacturing and workforce paradigms.