Part 11/14:
Once this threshold is crossed, investor sentiment is expected to shift strongly, as the market realizes that Tesla’s autonomous mobility is approaching a self-sustaining, revenue-generating scale. Based on the model, this milestone could happen as early as May 2026, with free cash flows from robo taxis reaching that 5% threshold. Crossing this line would be a major market signal, likely causing the stock to re-rate significantly upwards.
Furthermore, by end of 2026, the forecast suggests Tesla could deploy around 3,500 to 4,000 robo taxis in total, predominantly in a handful of key markets, with fleets growing steadily.