Part 4/13:
A core thesis of this analysis is that by 2028, Full Self-Driving (FSD) will become a commoditized AI technology—an essential building block rather than a competitive advantage. This shift is driven by breakthroughs in artificial general intelligence (AGI), expected to arrive by 2026 or 2027. Once AGI-based models reach maturity, they will enable vehicles to self-drive with minimal additional training data, drastically reducing costs and complexity.
However, owning this AGI alone won't guarantee success. It will require integrating it into a hardware platform, manufacturing vehicles at scale, obtaining regulatory approvals, and deploying operational infrastructure across numerous cities—an immensely complex and resource-intensive endeavor.