Part 7/12:
- Timing of Inflection Point: The model indicates a marked acceleration in reaching the 5% FCF threshold—from early 2026 to late 2023 or early 2024—making Tesla’s stock target of $1,000 more imminent than previously believed.
The New Threshold: Only 1,800 Robo Taxis Needed
With revised assumptions, the key inflection point now involves deploying approximately 1,800 robotaxis—a substantial reduction from the earlier estimate of 5,000. This number aligns with generating around $190 million annually, representing just over 5% of Tesla’s projected 2024 free cash flow.