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Implication: Achieving 1,800 units would signify a fundamental valuation shift, propelling Tesla’s stock markedly higher as analysts and investors recognize the service as a massive, cash-generating enterprise.
Timeline: The model suggests that, under favorable scaling scenarios, Tesla could reach this deployment milestone as early as late 2023 to early 2024, well ahead of prior estimates.
Market Scenarios and Deployment Trajectories
Three primary scaling scenarios shape the outlook:
Slow Scaling: Deployment of 10-20 robo taxis initially, reaching about 1,400 by year-end, with incremental growth.
Expected Scaling: Incremental growth from 40 robo taxis in July to over 1,400 in December, consistent with Tesla's planned rollout.