Part 7/12:
Using the model, the analysis projects that once RoboTaxis capture around 5% of Tesla's total free cash flow in 2024, the company’s valuation will fundamentally change. The green line in the model—representing 5% of Tesla’s free cash flow—serves as a “forcing function,” indicating a point where market consensus will inevitably shift to recognize Tesla’s true potential.
Furthermore, with aggressive scaling assumptions—such as deploying 1,000 RoboTaxis in the second half of 2023 and reaching 100,000 by 2025—the model envisions Tesla’s free cash flow skyrocketing, potentially doubling or tripling the entire company’s valuation within a short period. This underscores why current low prices are viewed as an excellent buying opportunity.