Part 8/12:
The Trajectory of RoboTaxi Deployment: Key Milestones and Timing
The rapid scaling of RoboTaxis is central to the valuation thesis. The model considers three potential trajectories:
Blue Line: Slower scaling than expected
Red Line: Expected, steady scaling
Yellow Line: Faster scaling, rapid growth
The green inflection point—where 5% of free cash flow is achieved—is projected to happen once around late 2023 or early 2024, depending on the trajectory. Achieving this milestone would trigger widespread recognition of Tesla’s new profit streams and propel the stock significantly higher.