Part 7/11:
The model emphasizes that the success or failure of robo taxi deployment heavily influences Tesla’s free cash flow. Specifically, hitting certain thresholds—such as achieving 5% of Tesla’s 2024 free cash flow—could trigger a "forcing function" among analysts, leading to a reassessment of Tesla’s value.
In the fast scenario, by August 2026, Tesla could deploy around 115,000 robo taxis, generating more than 100% of the company's 2024 cash flow, effectively doubling Tesla’s valuation. Such a milestone would likely lead to a sharp upward revision of stock price estimates, potentially catapulting the stock's fair value into the high hundreds or even close to a thousand dollars.