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Polling data shows a complex landscape. There have been several polls indicating Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic incumbent, leading with over 50% support. However, other polls suggest a close race, with Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli gaining ground. The key question remains: can Trump’s influence be harnessed negatively against Sherrill, or will local issues like affordability dominate voters' minds? If economic concerns outweigh national party loyalty, Ciattarelli might have a real shot at victory, signaling a potential shift in New Jersey’s political alignment.