Part 11/17:
Shea introduces the "40th floor problem," a metaphor illustrating complacency in the face of growing proliferation. Just as falling a few floors in a building might seem insignificant until disaster strikes, nations often brush aside close calls—such as near launch incidents—by highlighting how "so far so good." Yet history shows how close the world has come to nuclear catastrophe, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis or Soviet near-mistakes in 1983.
Despite no nuclear war since 1945, Shea warns that increased numbers of nuclear-armed states heighten the likelihood of an accidental or miscalculated launch. The potential for misperception, technical errors, or cyber manipulation makes the risk of nuclear conflict persistent, ominous, and inevitable if proliferation continues unchecked.