Part 8/17:
A key insight pertains to the long-term commodity cycle, which typically spans decades. Lynn points out that periods of high demand lead to overinvestment, oversupply, followed by long bear markets, and eventual shortages—feeding into future inflation. Current policies, including increased money supply and infrastructure spending, may accelerate these cycles.
He advocates for greater attention to these long-term trends, noting that recent strong commodity demand, combined with underinvestment, could mean the 2020s might resemble historical periods marked by inflation spikes seen in the 1970s or even the 1940s.